Area and Power Estimates of the California Lightning Complex Fires
Wildfire status in California is commonly reported in terms of containment, the percentage of the perimeter of a fire that is defended by a control line 1.5x the height of adjacent vegetation. By this measure the CZU Lightning Complex fire was 8% contained on the morning of 23 August 2020, and the SCU Lightning Complex was 10% contained. Based on fire maps and fire growth reports it is unclear that containment tells the whole story. Containment neglects the heat intensity of the fire. Also, containment doesn’t count until the fire reaches the control line, so even though much of the CZU Lightning Complex is bounded by Highway 1 and the Pacific Ocean, that boundary does not appear to count as containment.
The charts below estimate active burn area and power for the CZU and SCU Lightning Complex fires using data from the NASA FIRMS system. These histograms look at night satellite captures only, using the number of data points to estimate area. Given the 375m resolution of these satellite systems, each data point represents about 35 acres. Power is estimated use the sum of Fire Radiant Power in megawatts. This rudimentary analysis suggests the total power of the CZU complex has fallen by over 100x since its peak. They also suggest the SCU complex was 10–15x larger at peak than the CZU complex and has fallen only 10x in power. Note that cloud cover can impact satellite capture.